In their 2013 ruling in the Windsor case, the justices of the Supreme Court struck down marriage inequality.
The holding only immediately struck down one section of DOMA. But everything else in Justice Kennedy’s decision left no legitimate defence for bans on marriage. Now ending inequality appears to be as simple as a trip to your closest federal district court.
There’s a chance that, on appeal, a circuit court will reverse a lower court’s decision. Of course the losing party will appeal to the Supreme Court.
Last summer the high court was not ready to rule for full equality. I’d expect them to not take up an appeal from a circuit court yet. The only reason I’d see the Supreme Court taking an appeal soon would be if there are conflicting rulings from the circuit courts.
There are cases in district courts in western states that will be appealed to the ninth circuit soon. Because of precedent, I don’t see any way the lower court rulings striking inequality would be overturned. But, in a southern court, the judges are more likely to rule that the district courts overstepped their bounds.
And, like that, the Supreme Court would be very likely to grant certiorari and finish this for once and all.